At noon today Tropical Depression TD15F was located about 250km west of Nadi moving east at about 10kmph. The system referenced earlier TD14F still exists to the west of TD15F and this complex area of low pressure which currently has 2 centres is expected to consolidate in to a single system tonight with TD14F sacrificed for TD15 to intensify. TD15F is forecast to lie just to the west of the northern Mamanucas around midnight tonight. As it nears Fiji bands of heavy rain will spread over Fiji, especially the western, central and northern divisions.

As it moves over Fiji TD15F is expected to slow down and remain almost stationary over Fiji tomorrow (Wednesday) and continue to maintain its Tropical Depression status as the influence of the island of Viti Levu prevents it from intensifying. TD15F will then slowly move northward over the Yasawas to waters just north of Fiji on Wednesday night. As a result the heaviest rain will clear away from Fiji early Thursday morning and stay north of Fiji for about 36 hours. While over waters to our north the depression is likely to start to intensify and could reach tropical cyclone intensity late on Thursday or by Friday morning. Having completed a small loop to our north TD15F will then slip back down across Fiji on a slow path towards the SSE, possibly taking it across the populated parts of the country Friday night and Saturday.

Widespread heavy rain and areas of flooding are likely on Wednesday and Thursday morning. Winds are likely to be strong and squally from the north or northeast over all parts of Fiji with gusts to 75kmph at times.

TD15F will follow a very complex path and some changes to the current forecast described above are likely over the next few days. This system has the potential to bring extremely high rainfall accumulations and significant flooding of rivers, streams and low lying areas can be expected. Rains will initially be only marginally damaging with gusts restricted to 75kmph or less, however on Friday andSaturday winds are likely to strengthen significantly and may become more damaging or even destructive. What appears certain is that the influence of this system will be long lasting, until the end of the coming weekend at least.


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